The Role of the IFO Business Climate Indicator and Asset Prices in German Monetary Policy

We analyze the role of forward-looking indicators, like the IFO business climate indicator and asset prices, in German monetary transmission. We show that the use of both the IFO indicator and asset prices improves the performance and interpretation of a Vector AutoRegression (VAR) model of German monetary transmission. First, we show that the Bundesbank responded more intensively to changes in the IFO indicator than to changes in GDP. Secondly, we address the role of housing and equity prices. We demonstrate that especially housing prices help to give a more accurate description of the recent history of German monetary policy.monetary transmission, IFO business climate survey indicator, house prices, equity prices

Capital market imperfections, uncertainty and corporate investment in the Czech Republic

The well-known Klein-Monti model of bank behavior considers a monopolistic bank. We demonstrate that this model’s results on the comparative static effects of a change in the exogenous interbank market interest rate do not necessarily hold in oligopolistic Cournot or Stackelberg generalizations. Introducing asymmetries in the cost functions of the banks, or in their way of conduct, may imply counterintuitive effects on the individual banks’ volumes of loans and deposits. Keywords: Bank behavior, Cournot oligopoly, Stackelberg oligopoly

Monetary stability and financial development in Sub-Saharan countries

Abstract We analyze the interrelation between monetary stability and financial structure in 20 Sub-Saharan economies. Using a panel data set we estimate the impact of monetary stability and financial development on income per capita. Special interest is given to the conditions of the so-called CFA-countries, that have a fixed exchange rate vis-à-vis the French Franc. Is the impact of the financial system development in these countries bigger than in non-CFA countries? We measure monetary uncertainty using an auxiliary (G)ARCH model of monthly inflation. For financial development we take both the role of M2 as credit to the private sector into account. Our sample covers the years 1970-1997. We estimate growth regressions in three different forms: cross-section, interval, and a pooled model. We do find that inflationary uncertainty is relevant for growth of GDP per capita. Financial development is relevant in the low data-frequency models. The differences between CFA and non-CFA countries become apparent in the interval and pooled models. CFA-countries seem to rely more on credit in the interval model. Moreover, in the years 1985-1993 non-CFA countries seemed to suffer more from inflationary uncertainty.

Olympic participation and performance since 1896

We analyze the decision to participate and performance at the Modern Olympic Summer Games at the country level. We use an unbalanced panel of 118 countries over all 24 editions of the Summer Games since 1896. The main focus of the paper is on economic, geographic and demographic determinants of Olympic participation and success. We estimate the impact of income per capita, population size, home advantage, and some fixed country factors on participation and success rates. We present separate results for events before and after the Second World War. These results indicate that income is an important determinant of Olympic participation and success. Socialist countries send more athletes to the games and have more success in medal counts. The home advantage has become less prominent.

Asymmetric information, option to wait to invest and the optimal level of investment

This paper analyzes equilibrium rationing on credit markets in the case of gains from waiting to acquire information about the future profitability of investment. We compare the competitive outcome with the socially optimal level of investment. We show that the opportunity to postpone investment changes the nature of the inefficiencies of the competitive outcome fundamentally. Without the option to wait, high risk firms tend to invest and the outcome is characterized by a situation of underinvestment. If firms can wait high risk firms benefit the most from waiting. In this case low risk firms tend to invest immediately and a situation of overinvestment will result, since from the banks' point of view firms do not delay enough.

Olympic participation and performance since 1896

Abstract We analyze the decision to participate and Olympic performance at the country level. We use an unbalanced panel of 118 countries over 24 editions of the Olympic Summer Games. The main focus of the paper is on economic, geographic and demographic explanations of Olympic participation and success. We estimate the impact of income per capita, population size, home advantage, and institutional variables on participation and success rates. We present separate results for events before the Second World War and after. These results show that income is an important determinant of Olympic participation and success. Socialist countries send more athletes to the games and have more success in medal counts. The home advantage has become less prominent.

Endurance and age:evidence from long-distance running data

This paper analyzes the impact of aging on long-run endurance. We analyze the determinants of running speed on distances from 5K to the marathon. We model running speed as a function of distance, age, and sex. We find evidence for interaction between age and sex, but not between distance and sex. Our model shows that official track and field age grading overestimates human performance at high ages, although athletes are still able to perform at a high level at old ages

Endurance in speed skating

We analyse the development of world records speed skating from 1893 to 2000 for both men and women. The historical data show that it is likely that the relation between skating speed and distance of the various events is non-linear and converges to a limit value. We pay special attention to technical innovations in speed skating, especially, the introduction of the klapskate in the 1996/1997 season, and its impact on the long-run limit value. We focus on endurance and we estimate lower bounds for world records given the current technological state of the art.